Mitt Romney’s cruise to the GOP nomination is not so certain after the crippling blow he took in the South Carolina primary. It’s clear that Newt Gingrich’s win extends the Republican race into Florida and quite possibly into the spring if not longer. The primary results also dashed the hopes of former Senator Rick Santorum and Congressman Ron Paul since they finished far behind.
Romney still has the largest and best-funded organization but Gingrich is catching up. His come-from-behind victory in South Carolina will give him a big boost. Along with increasing support among voters, Gingrich is gaining ground in raising campaign contributions. He got a big boost from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson who wrote a $5 million check to an outside group set up to help the former speaker.
In the latest Rasmussen Reports nationwide survey of likely Republican primary voters, Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 25% among GOP voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Among Tea Party Republicans, Gingrich wins 39% to Romney 21%. Also, 76% of those polled say they’ll vote for their favorite even if they don’t believe their candidate will win the nomination.
Gingrich, speaking about Romney this week, said, “I think South Carolinians were the first state to really understand how liberal Governor Romney’s record was” as Massachusetts governor. Gingrich said his main rival lost ground “as people began to realize that he’d been pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase in a whole range of areas that despite his advertising and his pretending, it was clear that he was way to the left of South Carolinians.”
Conservatives are now questioning Romney’s ability to go toe-to-toe against President Obama in the fall election. Romney has a liberal governing record and polls indicate that most conservatives believe Romney will say anything to anyone in his desire to gain power. Romney has flip-flopped on most issues conservatives care about. While governor of Massachusetts, Romney put forth Romneycare, which was not a bottom-up free market system but a government-run health care system. Other concerns include his venture capitalist history at the Bain Capital firm, including the jobs lost in the name of profit, and possible tax avoidance by Romney.
Rick Santorum
Many conservatives believe it’s time for the former Pennsylvania senator to quit the GOP race. His shoestring campaign makes winning highly improbable. Santorum is continuing to split the conservative vote and making it far more likely that Romney will win the Republican race. Florida is a winner-take-all state in allocating delegates and Santorum could take a victory away from his fellow conservative. “His staying around is much to Romney’s delight and possibly Gingrich’s dismay,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.
Santorum is ignoring the pleas of Conservative Republicans and kicked off his Florida campaign this week by directly attacking Gingrich and dismissing the idea that the South Carolina primary reshaped the race into a face-off between Gingrich and Romney.
Campaigning near Fort Lauderdale, Santorum said, “We don’t need someone who sits on a couch with Nancy Pelosi – I mean it’s not as bad as sitting with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, but it’s close. I’m not gonna sit on the couch with anybody!” Santorum was referring to an environmentalist public service announcement by Gingrich and Pelosi, both former House Speakers.
Ron Paul
Many Republicans would like Ron Paul to drop out too, but that is highly unlikely. Paul doesn’t care so much about winning, just getting his message across. Since Paul is not seeking reelection to Congress, he has little to nothing to lose by staying in. Paul has not ruled out running for President in 2012 as a third party candidate.
“If for some reason he’s not treated well and chooses to run as a third party candidate he would create havoc,” said Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican strategist who ran Mike Huckabee’s 2008 presidential campaign and Michele Bachmann’s for awhile in 2011. It’s doubtful the Republican establishment would give Paul a speaking role at the Republican convention, fearing what he could say in a prime-time televised speech.
Florida votes next, on Jan. 31. It is one of the most expensive campaign states in the country. Romney and a group supporting him have already spent $7 million on television advertising in Florida, almost all of it attack ads.
