The world’s eyes are on the Sunshine State and its Jan. 31 primary. Florida’s primary importance is elevated because in the general election it has 29 electoral votes, more than one-tenth of the total needed to elect a president. Barack Obama won Florida by 2.8 percentage points in 2008 and this year Republicans may have an advantage in the general election. Florida’s unemployment rate stands at 9.9 percent and it is one of the states hit hardest by the housing bubble.
Florida has more Republican primary voters than the three states preceding it combined. Florida will be the first contest in the 2012 nominating schedule where only Republicans can vote. It has a winner-takes-all primary but its influence was dimmed when it lost half its convention delegates – leaving it with 50 – after it defied the Republican National Committee and moved its primary up to Jan. 31.
Because of absentee voting by mail, more than 118,000 Republicans have already voted in Florida’s presidential primary. In addition, tens of thousands of people have voted early. Five counties opened voting sites on Jan. 16 while others opened Jan. 21.
There are many retirees in Florida with 17.3 percent of the population 65 or older. For the GOP candidates, that makes Medicare and Social Security significant campaign issues. In Florida, social issues are less important than in previous primary states while economic issues reign.
In 2008, Romney finished second with 31 percent in the Florida primary, 5 percentage points behind U.S. Senator John McCain. The fact that Romney spent more than twice as much as McCain in Florida, yet still lost, bodes well for Gingrich. Like Gingrich, McCain won in South Carolina and it helped him look like a winner to Florida voters. The winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination since 1980.
Following Newt Gingrich’s come-from-behind victory in South Carolina, he overtook Mitt Romney in most Florida polls. More recently, Romney has reversed the trend in most cases. In South Carolina, Romney had as much as an 18-point lead during the first week in January but lost to Gingrich on Jan. 21 by a 13-point margin.
Gingrich continues to have a strong lead among white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters.
Florida Republican Presidential Primary |
|||||
|
(updated daily with newest polls on top)
|
|||||
 |
Poll | |
Results | |
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Public Policy Polling (PPP) | Romney 40, Gingrich 32, Santorum 15, Paul 9 | Romney +8 | ||
|
Rasmussen Reports | Romney 44, Gingrich 28, Santorum 12, Paul 10 | Romney +16 | ||
|
War Room Logistics | Romney 40, Gingrich 30, Santorum 15, Paul 6 | Romney +10 | ||
|
Ipsos Online | Romney 41, Gingrich 33, Santorum 13, Paul 5 | Romney +9 | ||
|
NBC Marist | Romney 42, Gingrich 27, Santorum 16, Paul 11 | Romney +15 | ||
|
Sunshine State News/VSS | Romney 40, Gingrich 31, Santorum 12, Paul 9 | Romney +9 | ||
|
Quinnipiac University Poll | Romney 38, Gingrich 29, Paul 14, Santorum 12 | Romney +9 | ||
|
Gallup Tracking | Gingrich 31, Romney 25, Paul 13, Santorum 13 | Gingrich +6 | ||
|
CNN / Time / ORC | Romney 36, Gingrich 34, Santorum 11, Paul 9 | Romney +2 (statistical tie) | ||
Former Governor Jeb Bush said he plans to “stay neutral” and warned the candidates to avoid a “circular firing squad” in attacking their opponents. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, elected with the support of Tea Party Republicans, is not taking sides either. None of the GOP candidates has publicly sought the endorsement of Governor Rick Scott. A recent Public Policy poll shows Scott’s approval rating at 26 percent, making him the least-liked governor in the entire United States.
Ron Paul won’t spend much time campaigning in Florida. He’s concentrating on Nevada, Maine and Minnesota, smaller states that don’t require much money. Florida has 10 major media markets — more than Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina combined, making it one of the most expensive states in a presidential campaign.
Romney may be showing fear of Gingrich. Both candidates were scheduled to appear at the same time at Tommy’s Country Ham House in Greenville. Romney arrived 45 minutes early and left by the time Gingrich arrived. “Where’s Mitt?” Gingrich said. “I thought he was going to stay and maybe we’d have a little debate.”
Campaign Ads
In response to his crushing defeat in South Carolina, Romney is raising questions about Gingrich’s business dealings for Freddie Mac, the government-backed home mortgage company. The ploy is dangerous for Romney since he received up to $1,000,000 in dividends and capital gains income from the sale of Freddie Mac common stock soon before the economic meltdown.
Romney and his backers are also attempting to focus negative attention on Gingrich’s record in Congress, including a congressional ethics investigation. Romney has challenged his opponent to release the findings. Romney also continues to question Gingrich’s temperament.
Through Jan. 19, Romney’s campaign spent $2.4 million on television ads in Florida. The political action committee that backs him, Restore Our Future, spent an additional $2.4 million, all of it negative in tone.
Gingrich is fighting back with television ads of his own. While Romney headed Bain and his firm controlled Damon Corp., the medical testing company submitted fraudulent reimbursement claims for blood tests to Medicare. The company paid a record $119 million fine, making it one of the largest cases of Medicare frauds in American history.
“Mitt Romney will do and say anything to become president. Anything,” says an ad released by the Gingrich campaign. Gingrich’s campaign is also running an anti-Romney Spanish-language ad on major Miami radio stations. It calls Mitt Romney a “liberal” who is “anti-immigrant.” Romney has loudly touted his opposition to the Dream Act which would make college more affordable for undocumented immigrants. More than one in ten Florida Republican primary voters is Hispanic.
The Republican Party will hold their national convention in Tampa in August.
Humpty Dumpty explaning Poetry to Alice in “Through the Looking Glass” Chapter 6 ; a debate along the same lines as Gingrich statement that only he can debate president Obama. “I can explain the meaning of all poems that have ever been invented and most of them that haven’t been invented yet.”
Of course it is a wonderful debate… yet we all know that any 35 year old US citizen who is a wholesome, honest person could use the Ben Franklin Close sales technique to show how the country was better off before Obama and how we have gone down hill since he was elected. We don’t need a side show… we need an humble honest leader like Mitt Romney to lead our country through the next 8 years. It would be a bonus to have a Republican Senate and House also.
Crystal so sorry but you must not be aware that many demos voted for Gingrich in South Carolina because they know that Obama would beat Gingrich but can’t beat Romney!!!
Obama wants Romney to Win,cause of Romney Care!Newt will tear Obama to Pieces!!!
No Speaker of the House In the 222 year history of the United States House of Representatives. Only one has faced official reprimand for ethics violations. That Speaker was Newt Gingrich
Newt was leading the charge against Clinton during the sex scandal while at the same exact time he was having an affair, Newt has had 3 wives his first 2 ended in divorce after he was caught having affair with multiple women.
Newt pressed his first wife to sign divorce papers while she was still in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery. He also graciously said “She isn’t young enough or pretty enough to be the President’s wife.”
Remember the House Banking scandal, where so many congressmen wrote rubber checks on government money? Newt hopes you don’t, because he bounced 22 himself, which almost cost him reelection in 1992 all this corruption even before his ethical violations, seems like a lifetime trend. His vote for the secret House pay raise, didn’t help.
Newt won’t stand a ghost of a chance, everyone saw when Romney tore Newt appart this past week in the debate. You’ve been drink that Newt gool-aid. Newt got Y’all hypnatized think that crap that he was the only person in the whole wide world that knows how to debate. Obama would slice Newt like a paper doll.
This site is a farce as is newsmax. Lies like Gingrich. Accuses an honest man of lying. Supported by the Nevada Casino linked Chinese mafia, Gingrich former speaker who was expelled from Congress for Ethics violations, many of which were hidden, Gingrich and his supporters like Newsmax and trupolitics will collapse. They are like the scorned woman who want to make certain if we cant win no republican can. Its a shame… shame on you.. Gingrich, Newsmax, trupolitics.. you are toxic, and repulsive!
Go Mitt .. or Santorum secondly or Paul.. BUT NEVER the man who speaks more lies than Obama himself.. Mr. shamed Gingrich.
Romney would make a great President. He has high standards, knows and responds very well to all the issues, looks clean and wholesome, sounds and is very intelligent, he is a very moral, clean cut family man, he saved the Olympic’s when they were held in Utah when he stepped in and organized
everything. I understand he accepted no pay for doing a wonderful job, and he contributes millions to charities. It is about time we had someone in office that we can trust and admire not to mention the fact that he would be the best looking President we ever had in office and a great representative of this country…
Janet, Well said!! Thank You!
On Romney’s character….
Sometimes, this facet of Romney’s personality isn’t so subtle. In July 1996, the 14-year-old daughter of Robert Gay, a partner at Bain Capital, had disappeared. She had attended a rave party in New York City and gotten high on ecstasy. Three days later, her distraught father had no idea where she was. Romney took immediate action. He closed down the entire firm and asked all 30 partners and employees to fly to New York to help find Gay’s daughter. Romney set up a command center at the LaGuardia Marriott and hired a private detective firm to assist with the search. He established a toll-free number for tips, coordinating the effort with the NYPD, and went through his Rolodex and called everyone Bain did business with in New York, and asked them to help find his friend’s missing daughter. Romney’s accountants at Price Waterhouse Cooper put up posters on street poles, while cashiers at a pharmacy owned by Bain put fliers in the bag of every shopper. Romney and the other Bain employees scoured every part of New York and talked with everyone they could – prostitutes, drug addicts – anyone.
That day, their hunt made the evening news, which featured photos of the girl and the Bain employees searching for her. As a result, a teenage boy phoned in, asked if there was a reward, and then hung up abruptly. The NYPD traced the call to a home in New Jersey, where they found the girl in the basement, shivering and experiencing withdrawal symptoms from a massive ecstasy dose. Doctors later said the girl might not have survived another day. Romney’s former partner credits Mitt Romney with saving his daughter’s life, saying, “It was the most amazing thing, and I’ll never forget this to the day I die.”
So, here’s my epiphany: Mitt Romney simply can’t help himself. He sees a problem, and his mind immediately sets to work solving it, sometimes consciously, and sometimes not-so-consciously. He doesn’t do it for self-aggrandizement, or for personal gain. He does it because that’s just how he’s wired.
Many people are unaware of the fact that when Romney was asked by his old employer, Bill Bain, to come back to Bain & Company as CEO to rescue the firm from bankruptcy, Romney left Bain Capital to work at Bain & Company for an annual salary of one dollar. When Romney went to the rescue of the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics, he accepted no salary for three years, and wouldn’t use an expense account. He also accepted no salary as Governor of Massachusetts.
Character counts!! (and yes…that’s worth reading again!)
Romneys stand on illegal immigration is excellent. This travesty should be stopped. They come here to have children and then become welfare recipients. That’s the better life they come here to look for, and it is not fair that the hard-working, responsible people in this country, are forced to support those leeches. They are eating up our economy. We need a presiden who finally will do something about this huge problem, and that is Romney.
the immigration issue is HUGH in my opinion.
It has helped me make my decision.
I have nothing against coming into our country if done legally.
Gingrich will do and say anything to become president. He lies through hs teeth with no remorse. He sold himself out to the illegal for votes. He even went to Univision to tell them he will legalize the illegal. And he said that it is not humane not to legalize them. Him talking about being humane? HAHAHA. How about him leaving his second wife after she was diagnosed with cancer to marry his mistress? Is that being HUMANE? What this man is is a cynic.